Updated 1 week ago ago
“We have only to kick in the door, and the whole rotten structure will come crashing down”.
– Hitler before Operation Barbarossa – invading the Soviet Union
Now that the sugar high has worn off….
Prediction: we’re going to run out of missiles way way way before any resistance materializes.
Trump’s going to need boots on the ground to finish this regime change, and that’s never going to happen. Oh sure he may reinstate the draft and just try to bully it through. If that happens there will be open revolt. More likely he will just try to do a cheap rerun of GWB in Iraq. Which will have an obvious, predictable outcome.
Iran is twice the population of Iraq, and three times its size.
Iran, like Turkey, is an ethnic crazy quilt ripe for a civil war complete with Afghanistan-style mountains.
Most Americans have forgotten, the last time Iran fought a war, it was with Iraq in the 80s, and they sent out wave after wave of martyrs who marched to their deaths.
On top of all this, amidst all of these shortages and American antipathy towards engagement, there’s a more than zero chance China will take Taiwan.
After a few years of anarchy and newborn homegrown terrorism, eventually, the next president, Gavin Newsom, will have talks with the IRGC to make substantial progress in de-escalation with the nuclear program.
So pretty much Obama’s deal in 2015.
But if Trump is extremely lucky and extremely crafty he can make an end run to de-escalation with the IRGC and everybody will be happy. I don’t have a lot of faith in this because I don’t have a lot of faith in Trump. He’s the shot caller running the show, LBJ-in-Vietnam style, and he’s a fucking idiot.
One of his last words on his deathbed will be “a lot of people don’t know this but achieving peace in the Middle East is pretty hard!”
Still happy the Ayatollah is dead, although that sugar high will soon turn into military hardware withdrawals.
Sunday, March 8
If Trump declares that “Oxygen is a Good Thing!!” and declares anyone who doesn’t breathe is a woke radical leftist, should we stop breathing out of spite?
“If you see the protests of the Iranian women over the past several years crying out for their civil rights, risking torture and death as they took off their hijabs in public, if you care about women’s rights, if you care about human rights, you should care about those women. And it’s completely intolerable that we have acquiesced to this meme that it’s somehow a sign of bigotry to express how evil it is that under this version of Islam, women are subjected to what is in reality gender apartheid.”
Sam Harris attempts to thread the needle, and I think he does for the most part. I think it’s important to remember as bad as Trump is – and he is awful – the worst – Iran was also very bad.
Trump was democratically elected. You can’t really blame him for anything – sure, he’s probably a pedofile, but pedos are a dime a dozen. It’s the voters who enabled him that must be blamed.
Iran’s mullahs actually had people killed and actually exported their terrorism. The two just don’t compare. At least we can vote out our evil, and/or that evil is term-limited. Machinations/shenanigans aside, but that’s another topic.
Silver lining for leftists, liberals and Democrats: Trump and the GOP will take all of the blame for doing what was ultimately necessary, and will pay for it dearly later this year.
When they are gone, don’t forget: it had to be done. Iran must be free. As an optimist, I for one am glad there was at least one good outcome out of eight years of hell.
I still believe the chaos is just beginning though.
Friday March 13th
Trump always chickens out
never forget that
He will do so in Iran and try to convince everyone it never happened
but Iran will keep sending out missiles
the next president will have to clean it all up
and just like the Germans after World War I with their stab in the back anti-Semitic conspiracy
A new Republican will rise saying that the Democrats lost the Iran war for us and that we need to go back and set things right
This is starting to feel like emperor shenanigans in Rome circa 300 AD
