Updated 14 minutes ago ago
“We have only to kick in the door, and the whole rotten structure will come crashing down”.
– Hitler before Operation Barbarossa – invading the Soviet Union
Now that the sugar high has worn off….
Prediction: we’re going to run out of missiles way way way before any resistance materializes.
Trump’s going to need boots on the ground to finish this regime change, and that’s never going to happen. Oh sure he may reinstate the draft and just try to bully it through. If that happens there will be open revolt. More likely he will just try to do a cheap rerun of GWB in Iraq. Which will have an obvious, predictable outcome.
Iran is twice the population of Iraq.
Iran, like Turkey, is an ethnic crazy quilt ripe for a civil war complete with Afghanistan-style mountains.
Most Americans have forgotten, the last time Iran fought a war, it was with Iraq in the 80s, and they sent out wave after wave of martyrs who marched to their deaths.
On top of all this, amidst all of these shortages and American antipathy towards engagement, there’s a more than zero chance China will take Taiwan.
After a few years of anarchy and newborn homegrown terrorism, eventually, the next president, Gavin Newsom, will have talks with the IRGC to make substantial progress in de-escalation with the nuclear program.
So pretty much Obama’s deal in 2015.
But if Trump is extremely lucky and extremely crafty he can make an end run to de-escalation with the IRGC and everybody will be happy. I don’t have a lot of faith in this because I don’t have a lot of faith in Trump. He’s the shot caller running the show, LBJ-in-Vietnam style, and he’s a fucking idiot.
One of his last words on his deathbed will be “a lot of people don’t know this but achieving peace in the Middle East is pretty hard!”
Still happy the Ayatollah is dead, although that sugar high will soon turn into military hardware withdrawals.
