Updated 3 years ago
Here is some cold hard math that many of us are probably doing, but the math probably isn’t out there in the mass media because frankly it’s kind of morbid. I get that. You certainly won’t see Trump tweeting this.
But to me, it is somewhat comforting knowing the odds. They are actually pretty good.
Keep in mind these are all very generalized numbers based on the best estimates we have right now.
Odds of losing one (or both) of your parents
Assumptions
30% infection rate (this is actually lowballing it)
10% death rate for each (it’s high because they are old. I rounded for this simplicity, and this may be adjusted for age and health)
If you have only one parent currently alive:
there is a 3% chance they die.
or, if you have two parents currently alive,
there is a 5.7% chance either dies.
and a 2% chance BOTH die if living together,
and a 0.6% chance if separated.
How I calculated:
The first is easy. 1 parent alive x .30 x .1
2 parents alive is a little trickier:
Either parent dies:
1- 0.9 x 0.9 = 19% chance of either dying
x 30% infection rate = 5.7%
Both parents die:
2%, (shortcut here – think of it as 10 sided dice. 2 dice, 100 outcomes, 2 outcomes out of a 100 outcomes is 2%)
.3 (infection rate) x 2% = 0.6% chance of both dying assuming they are separated.
…BUT they probably aren’t separated – infection chance if living together would assumed to be 100%, so 2% chance of both dying
Not so bad! Everyone relax and stay safe.
