Updated 1 week ago ago
Only a fool starts a war he cannot win.
Defeat is inevitable. Every day is dragging us further down a financial meltdown. The question is, how far down is Trump going to drag everyone else down with him, in service of his ego?
Replace Putin and Russia with Trump and America. It explains everything.
Read this paragraph three times:
“The power to close or control the flow of ships through the strait is greater and more immediate than the theoretical power of Iran’s nuclear program. This leverage will allow the leaders in Tehran to force nations to lift sanctions and normalize relations or face penalties. Israel will find itself more isolated than ever, as Iran grows richer, rearms, and preserves its options to go nuclear in the future. It may even find itself unable to go after Iran’s proxies: In a world where Iran wields influence over the energy supply of so many nations, Israel could face enormous international pressure not to provoke Tehran in Lebanon, Gaza, or anywhere else.”
Trump is screwed, and so is Israel, which made a truly awful gamble.
Update May 22:
Trump’s Endgame Is Surrender
He seems to hope to slip away without Americans noticing the magnitude of this defeat.
https://archive.ph/gXrc8
“The world’s nations’ stampede to get good terms with Tehran has begun… Those nations currently allied with the United States and friendly to Israel will feel pressure to distance themselves and make their peace with Iran.
On the present trajectory, Iran will emerge from the conflict many times stronger and more influential than it was before the war. It will exercise leverage with dozens of the richest nations in the world, all of which will have an acute interest in keeping Iran happy. They will be unlikely to take Israel’s side in any conflict that it has with Tehran or with its proxies in Lebanon and Gaza, because Iran will have the means to punish them if they do. Israel will emerge more isolated than it has been at any time in its history—and not least from its only reliable protector, the United States. When Trump turns his back on Israel, as he must do to implement this policy, MAGA will gladly follow. The bipartisan anti-Israel consensus in the United States will grow and harden.”
So this is a cataclysm for US, and Israel in particular. This is why Bibi miscalculated so badly. Israel will be in a much worse position geopolitically since before October 7.
Adios, Abraham Accords. All that work for nothing.
Update May 25:
Why Trump Lost
