Be careful what you wish for in Syria

Updated 4 months ago

The last gasp of the Arab Spring keeps going and going and going…

Update Dec 8: https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/syria-rebels-celebrate-captured-homs-set-sights-damascus-2024-12-07/

A lot of people don’t like Assad, but remember that there are no Arab democracies, unless you were to include the shakey democracy that is multi-ethnic Iraq, And even that could be dismissed as a post-Bush parlor trick. The Baath party, which still influences Syria and also once had Saddam Hussein and many others, was nominally secular and socialist.

We’ve seen this happen before, in Egypt. After elections were held the Muslim Brotherhood won and were deposed, thankfully, in a coup by General El-Sisi, who has brought stability to the region, even going after Isis insurgents in the Sinai Peninsula.

Be careful what you wish for, and this could get very ugly very fast.

Still, any loss of power and influence from Iran and Russia is a good thing. The real winner here is the Kurds. And thank you, Ukraine and Israel, for making this happen.

A Christmas update:

The end of a major civil war that disrupted Europe. The dismantling of an evil empire. Freedom in the Middle East. Israel resurgent. Bad guys in retreat across the region.

It’s a time to rejoice.

Thanks, Israel, Kurdistan, America, and all the Syrian rebels – ex Al-Qaeda, even.

This might be a moment to reflect that the Gulf War wasn’t all for nothing. For all the chaos in the Middle East, for all the injured Iraq vets, for the many innocent Iraqi citizens killed, be glad that Assad’s Baathist buffy Saddam Hussein isn’t lobbing scuds at Israel right now.

….yet more work exists. The OGs: Iran, Russia, China, and North Korea. Maybe they will someday be democratic. And make it stick this time. Problem is, it’s a hard job, changing cultures, ingrained habits. Values. Trust. That takes centuries.

Even the US still struggles with it today, and is very much not out of the clear.

It will never be easy. Marriage is hard even after decades, still takes work. Now switch the spouse with an ever-changing, fickle, pool of dynamic citizens, and the prenups are always up for debate.