Updated 15 hours ago ago
https://markashryock.substack.com/p/eight-weeks-to-empty-shelves-sixty
2026 is going to be a wild ride. Buckle up, stock up, as there’s no TACO this time! What a spectacular, completely avoidable shit show. Best part is, the fallout will last until the end of Trump’s term. Takes some of the bite out of it! It’s COVID all over again. The Democrats and their hoax!
Article highlights:
“Here is the fact that should keep every policymaker awake tonight. If the Strait of Hormuz opened this afternoon, completely and permanently, the first drop of new Persian Gulf gasoline would not reach a Midwestern gas pump until approximately late August or September 2026. That is roughly 12 to 16 weeks from now.
“We are no longer in a price crisis. We are entering a physical shortage. A point where fuel stops being available at any price because there is none left to sell.
Tank bottoms does not mean the tanks are low. It means the system stops working. Oil storage tanks require a minimum liquid volume to maintain the pressure needed for pumps to function. When levels drop below that threshold, the remaining oil becomes physically inaccessible to the pipeline system. It cannot be pumped out. It cannot be moved. The pumps fail.
So when Currie says “tank bottoms,” he is describing a point where the infrastructure itself fails. The pumps cannot pull. The pipelines cannot deliver. The refineries cannot process. It does not matter what the price is. It does not matter how much money you have. The fuel is physically gone from the system.
Europe is hitting that point now. This month. May 2026. The United States hits it around July 4. That is not a projection for next year. That is eight weeks from the day I am writing this.
“It’s baked in, full stop. It’s going to take so long to get all this restarted that those inventories will continue to draw.” Even if the war ended today, the shortages are inevitable.
Not all fuels are equal in this crisis. Diesel runs out first. And when diesel stops, America stops.
Diesel is not a luxury fuel. Diesel is the blood supply of the American economy. Seventy percent of all agricultural and food products in the United States are transported by truck. Every truck runs on diesel. Every tractor in every field runs on diesel. Every combine harvester runs on diesel. Every refrigerated trailer keeping food cold on its way to your grocery store runs on diesel. Every freight train pulling grain cars runs on diesel.
When diesel becomes scarce, trucks stop moving. When trucks stop moving, food does not get picked up from farms. It does not get delivered to processing plants. It does not get driven to distribution centers. It does not arrive at grocery stores.
This is not inflation. Inflation is when prices go up. This is when the shelves go empty because there is nothing to put on them. There is nothing to put on them because there is no fuel to move the food from where it grows to where you live.
In 2026, the Hormuz closure has disrupted 15 to 20 percent of global supply. Physical oil has already hit $144 per barrel. This is three times the Kuwait disruption. Twice the 1973 embargo. And unlike 1973, OPEC cannot respond because OPEC’s own members are locked behind the blockade. Unlike 1990, there is no quick coalition solution because the damage is physical and structural, not just political.
This is the largest gross disruption to global oil supply in modern history. There is no precedent for it. The EIA administrator said it himself: “Just as we had never before seen the strait close, we’ve never seen it reopen.”
