Updated 2 years ago
Firstly, here were the predictions I made almost 2 years ago:
Predicting the Next Few Years
How did I do? Overall, I got most things right, and of the things I got wrong, some are because I overestimated the intelligence of the average American, and some can be chalked up to timing – note that the predictions say “Next Few Years” and not “2021” or “2022.” Many of the long-term trends will be ascribed to the entire decade (see bottom of this page). It is still early.
Here are a few notable ways I got it wrong:
I thought Trump would probably fire Fauci. Obviously, that did not happen.
I underestimated the number of deaths by at least 2 to 1.
Punk and rebellion didn’t become more popular, outside of a few protesters. Outside of a few local school boards, things really quieted down once Trump left.
I was wrong when I said “[there will be ] fear and distrust by country people for city people, in a manner that we have probably not seen for generations.” The country people by and large don’t care that much about infections.
This is wrong as well. Thanks to Biden, America is no longer the basket case of the world.
“By the same token, Americans will be less welcome in other countries. The Coronavirus spread like wildfire through America, and Canada and Mexico were far behind. Disposable income can only get you so far. This will be punctuated by more people dying. “
This was correct in the short term, but I now think it’s going to crash and be replaced by more environmentally friendly cryptocurrencies: “Bitcoin will grow. “
This was wrong, but I still think it will start to happen in 2022:
“Property values everywhere will plummet.”
The Baby Boomers are starting to wane as a generational bulge, and the hints of Gen X & Millenial’s stewardship of Battleship America will start to emerge.
So now, my predictions for 2022:
| Month | COVID deaths | Events |
| Jan | 870K | The Long Winter of Discontent |
| Feb | 940K | |
| Mar | 1 million + New strain dominates | Fed announces rate increases to combat inflation, which has been spiraling through the winter |
| Apr | 1.05 mil | Dow officially enters recession; real estate crashes. Inflation immediately starts to go down |
| May | 1.1 mil | NRG Park/Astroworld/Ticketmaster/Travis Scott collectively declare bankruptcy |
| Jun | 1.15 mil | Biden’s numbers start to spike. They were so low in 2021, the numbers could only go up. The good news of back to normalcy starts entering the new cycles; Fox continues attacking Wokeness and CRT to increasingly deaf ears. |
| July | 1.19 mil + New Omega strain dominates | Dow officially re-emerges from recession. Supreme Court rules against abortion rights in Mississippi; abortion becomes illegal in much of the U.S. Women respond. The political script is flipped in 2022. The groundswell is massive. |
| Aug | 1.22 mil | Chip prices start to enter a long term price decrease |
| Sep | 1.24 mil | |
| Oct | 1.27 mil | |
| Nov | 1.31 mil + New strain dominates; Greek alphabet depleted, now it’s simply the last 2 numbers of the year, followed by the month, then day i.e. “COVID 22-11-19” | Defying history due to the SCOTUS’ ruling on abortion, the Democrats pick up a few seats in Congress. Aggravating this is the very real fact that enough Republican voters have died of COVID to noticeably affect elections. Trump blames not gaining seats on De Santis. After being pummeled for crusading against abortion, Greg Abbott loses to Beto O’Rourke |
| Dec | 1.4 mil | Pfizer announces that the Ultima vaccine, which offers complete immunity to all strains of COVID, will be available by May 2023 |
2023: Emboldened by the midterms, Democrats finally pack the SCOTUS. May 2023: Ultima vaccine distributed, reaches 80% of Americans as it’s pretty much needed to do anything (get a license, vote, etc). The gloves come off. The new liberal justices make this possible.
The same month, U.S. climbs out of recession.
Here is an article I wrote in 2020 that I still stand behind for the next decade:
A Return to Normalcy
